6 economists forecast the 2016 housing market

Andi • February 3, 2016

Trends, forecasts and more from some of the most prominent economic minds in the industry


Feb 2, 2016

As we ring in a New Year, Housing News Report asked six prominent economists to forecast what 2016 will bring for the U.S. housing market.

For housing, 2015 was a strong year, with home sales high and home prices continuing to rise.

Overall, the economists surveyed were cautiously optimistic about 2016 when it comes to home prices, home sales, interest rates and the impact of loosening lending standards that have recently been introduced by government agencies. Since 2016 is a Presidential election year, the economists were cagey when it comes to regulatory changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Here’s what they are forecasting for 2016:

What will be the most important housing market trend(s) in 2016 and why?

Alex Villacorta, chief economist, Clear Capital:   The two most important housing market trends to watch in 2016 will be the continued growth of rental rates and the moderating trend in home prices. The pattern seen in 2015 was largely characterized by a white-hot rental market, and if this continues, more households will likely choose to rent over buy in 2016.

In addition to driving rental prices up and vacancy rates down, this trend disengages an increasing proportion of potential home buyers — evidenced by the lowest homeownership rate in almost 50 years. Adding insult to injury for the purchase market, increasing rental rates continue to make it more difficult for potential buyers to save up for a down payment.

In 2016 we’ll use data from Clear Capital’s Home Data Index to see, at a local level, when the tide turns from rental to purchase demand. Many markets are already hospitable for buyers, but we have yet to see the demand. This implies that consumer confidence and the inability to overcome the barriers to purchase are a real headwind to a fully engaged housing market, especially for first-time home buyers.

As the year evolves we’ll be watching both rent and purchase trends closely, as a waning pattern in rental prices will suggest that momentum is shifting to the broader housing market, which should result in a more robust price growth in 2016.

 

Jonathan Smoke, chief economist, realtor.com: Demand for for-sale housing will grow and will continue to be dominated by older millennials, aged 25 to 34. This demographic has the potential to claim a third of home sales in 2016 and represent 2 million home purchases.

Two other demographics will also be dominant forces on the buy side but will also be a key part of providing the necessary inventory on the sell side. Gen-X is in prime earning years and thus is also experiencing improvements in their economic circumstances, which include more relocations and seeking better neighborhoods for their families. Older boomers are approaching — or already in — retirement and seeking to downsize or lock in a lower cost of living. Together, these two generations will provide much of the suburban inventory that millennials desire to start their own families.

Supply will also improve as a result of additional growth in new construction and particularly in more single-family construction. The growth will be in more affordable price points, which will help bring down the average new home prices and average size of new homes, which have grown dramatically so far in the recovery as builders principally focused on the move-up, luxury, and active adult segments.

Mortgage rates should also begin their long-anticipated ascent as the Federal Reserve attempts to “thread the needle” on influencing rates up without negatively impacting economic growth. The increases in mortgage rates will likely be lower than the increases in short-term interest rates created by Fed policy as global weakness and a strong dollar limit more pronounced movement in long bonds. Mortgage rates will also be volatile, moving up and down by day and week, similar to how we’ve seen the market in 2015, but the key difference will be a more pronounced longer trend towards higher rates.

New Home Sales & NAR Existing Home Sales - Jan05-Dec15

The move up in mortgage rates should be a net positive to the market as fence-sitting sellers and buyers begin to understand that rates are moving higher and decide to jump into the market while they remain at such historically low levels.

The final key trend is that rents will rise more rapidly than prices, adding to the already burdensome level of rents that exist in more than 85 percent of the markets in the country. In the near term, this reinforces the consumer’s decision to buy, but higher rents also start to negatively impact the pipeline for future purchases by keeping renting households from saving towards a down payment.

Where is the housing market headed in 2016?

Douglas Duncan, chief economist, Fannie Mae:  Lots of discussion of the need for subsidy but the real problem is lack of income growth for low and moderate income households. There will be a discussion of the regulatory cost of land development which is an inhibitor to production of low to moderate income affordable housing. Rents will remain strong as a result.

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics:   The most important housing market trend in 2016 will be the developing housing shortage. New housing construction has picked up in recent years, but it remains well below that needed to meet demand from newly formed households, second home buyers, and obsolescence of the existing stock of homes. Rental and homeowner vacancy rates, which are already very low, will continue to decline. This will continue to push house prices and rents up quickly. The housing shortage will be most acute for lower prices and affordable housing. Matthew Gardner, chief economist, Windermere: I expect that we will see more homes for sale. Homeowner equity started to recover in 2013 and has been steadily improving since that time.  As such, I expect that it will increase their likelihood of selling. At last — more inventory!  But I fear that it will still fall short of the supply needed to match demand.

Peter Muoio, chief economist, Ten-X: Wage growth will be the key new ingredient for the housing recovery. We have been watching signs of accelerating wage growth percolate through different data sources, but 2016 will see clear and convincing evidence of rising wages. This will help with housing affordability and be the final ingredient for higher household formations and housing demand.

The other key 2016 trend will be the pace of interest rate increases. We know the Fed will pull the trigger, but the key question is how fast and strongly they continue to tighten in 2016, as that will affect mortgage rates.

Daren Blomquist is the vice president of RealtyTrac.

By Andi Dyer January 1, 2026
Bellingham, Washington has a way of sneaking up on people. What starts as a weekend visit to the bay or a hike near Mount Baker often turns into daydreams about calling this Pacific Northwest city home. As a REALTOR® who’s helped many seniors find their next chapter here, I’ve seen that moment of realization again and again, when a visitor looks around and says, “I could live here.” Before you start packing, let’s take a clear-eyed look at what makes Bellingham special for those seeking a vibrant, active retirement or lifestyle change, and a few honest realities to keep expectations grounded. 1. The Scenery is Straight-Up Gorgeous Framed by the Salish Sea and the rugged peaks of the North Cascades, Bellingham sits in one of the most breathtaking corners of the country. On clear mornings, Mount Baker rises like a snowy sentinel at 10,781 feet. On misty ones, the bay softens into watercolor.'' Why it matters for you: After decades of seeing the same view, Bellingham offers new inspiration every day. I’ve had clients tell me they still pause each morning with coffee in hand just to watch the light shift on the water. Here, the view doesn’t fade, it becomes part of your life’s rhythm. 2. Outdoor Recreation is Practically a Civic Duty In Bellingham, the outdoors isn’t something you “go to.” It’s part of daily life. The culture here revolves around staying active at every age. You can hike the Chuckanut Ridge Trail before breakfast, kayak the calm waters of Lake Whatcom at lunch, or take a scenic drive up Mount Baker Highway by afternoon. The outdoors isn’t a backdrop, it’s the heartbeat of the city. Why it matters for you: Bellingham is built for the lifestyle you’ve been promising yourself. With more than 50 parks and a network of trails, there’s something for everyone, from gentle bird-watching walks to challenging alpine hikes. Boulevard Park’s paved paths are perfect for walkers and cyclists, while Fairhaven’s waterfront boardwalk lets you enjoy salt air without rugged terrain. 3. You Actually Know Your Neighbors With under 100,000 residents, Bellingham keeps the best parts of small-town living while offering modern convenience. Neighborhoods like Fairhaven and Columbia are full of historic homes, front porches, and friendly waves from people who genuinely seem happy to see you. Why it matters for you: If you’re relocating from a big metro area, you’ll feel the difference immediately. The Saturday Farmers Market doubles as a social calendar. Coffee shops remember your order. I’ve watched clients build stronger friendships here in two years than they had in decades elsewhere. 4. Big-City Access, Small-Town Pace Bellingham sits roughly 90 minutes from both Seattle and Vancouver, BC, close enough for day trips, but far enough to avoid the stress and traffic that come with big-city life. Why it matters for you: You can visit world-class museums, see a Broadway show, or catch an international flight without living in the middle of chaos. It’s the best of both worlds, access when you need it, serenity when you don’t. 5. A Creative, Artsy Pulse This is a town that values expression over pretense. From live theater at the historic Mount Baker Theatre to the monthly Art Walk, Bellingham celebrates creativity in its most human form. Murals turn alleys into galleries, potters and painters share their work in open studios, and live music spills from intimate venues. Why it matters for you: Retirement doesn’t mean slowing down, it means rediscovering your spark. Whether it’s taking an art class, joining a choir, or exploring the local film festival, the creative energy here keeps life full and engaging. 6. A University That Keeps Things Fresh Western Washington University adds 16,000 students’ worth of energy and curiosity to the city. The result? A culture that never feels stagnant. Why it matters for you: The university enriches the community with affordable performances, public lectures, and events open to all. Many of my clients audit classes or attend talks on everything from marine biology to literature. It’s a wonderful way to stay sharp and connected. 7. Environmental Stewardship Isn’t Just Talk Bellingham was one of Washington’s first cities to adopt a comprehensive climate action plan, and it shows. Solar panels, EV charging stations, and curbside composting are part of everyday life. Why it matters for you: If you care about living sustainably and leaving a positive legacy, you’ll fit right in. The city makes green living effortless, from easy bike commuting to eco-friendly building codes. 8. Cleaner Air, Calmer Summers, and That Mild Climate You’ve Been Seeking Thanks to coastal breezes and its marine influence, Bellingham stays comfortable year-round. Summers average in the 70s, winters in the 40s. The air is fresh, the humidity low, and extreme weather rare. Why it matters for you: You can be active outdoors almost every day of the year. No brutal heat, no shoveling snow, and no icy driveways. My clients from California and the East Coast often tell me the mild climate alone was worth the move. And about that rain, yes, it drizzles from October through April. But locals know the secret: invest in a great rain jacket and keep moving. That gentle mist is the reason everything stays lush and green. Once you embrace it, you’ll find it oddly peaceful. 9. A Tight-Knit, Generous Community People here show up, for beach cleanups, fundraisers, food banks, and each other. Volunteering feels like a local pastime. Why it matters for you: Moving later in life can feel isolating, but in Bellingham, it’s surprisingly easy to plug in. Whether you’re joining a local garden group or helping maintain a trail, the friendships that form here tend to stick. 10. Innovation in Sustainable Living Bellingham is quietly becoming a model for sustainable development. The waterfront redevelopment is turning old industrial space into a vibrant, eco-conscious mixed-use district. Why it matters for you: Buying or building a home here means access to energy-efficient designs, walkable neighborhoods, and a forward-thinking community that’s planning for the next generation. 11. A Food Scene with Real Roots Here, “farm-to-table” isn’t marketing—it’s Tuesday. The fertile farmland in Whatcom and Skagit valleys supplies local restaurants, co-ops, and weekly markets with an ever-changing seasonal bounty. Why it matters for you: You’ll eat better and feel better. Whether it’s the Community Food Co-op or a chef-owned bistro, fresh, local food connects you to the rhythms of the land and the people who grow it. 12. A Culture of Health and Movement Bellingham’s wellness mindset is contagious. Cyclists, runners, and yoga enthusiasts fill the parks and trails year-round. Why it matters for you: When your neighbors are hiking into their 70s and biking into their 80s, it changes your idea of aging. Many of my clients tell me they’ve become more active here than they were decades ago, the city practically invites you to move. 13. Learning at Every Age Between Western Washington University, Whatcom Community College, and Bellingham Technical College, education is everywhere. Why it matters for you: Retirement can expand your world instead of shrinking it. Whether it’s a pottery class, history seminar, or photography workshop, lifelong learning is built into the culture. 14. Events with Personality From the legendary Ski-to-Sea relay (seven sports, one wild day) to the maritime mayhem of SeaFeast and the cozy glow of Fairhaven Winterfest, Bellingham knows how to celebrate. Why it matters for you: These aren’t corporate festivals; they’re true community events. Whether you’re cheering on racers or browsing local art, you’ll feel part of something authentic. 15. A Foundation for Long-Term Stability Unlike boom-and-bust cities, Bellingham grows at a sustainable pace. Education, healthcare, small business, and tourism form a solid base. Why it matters for you: If you’re planning your retirement for the long haul, you’ll appreciate the steadiness here. The real estate market is strong but not frantic, and the sense of security is real. Real-World Truths: What to Know Before You Move Yes, gray days are real. From October to April, the drizzle is steady but mild. Locals adapt with good gear and warm coffee shops. Find an activity that makes you go outside no matter what, yes you will get Vitamin D through the cloud cover. The payoff is a year-round green landscape and comfortable temperatures. Housing costs run higher than average. Desirability keeps prices above national norms, though still far below Seattle or Vancouver. Working with a REALTOR® who understands senior transitions can make all the difference in finding the right home. The job market leans local. Bellingham’s economy is anchored by education, healthcare, and small businesses. For retirees, this creates stability, and a community focused more on quality of life than corporate competition. The Bottom Line: Is Bellingham Right for You? Bellingham isn’t perfect, but it’s genuine. It blends natural beauty, environmental consciousness, and community warmth in a way few places do. If you’re looking for mild weather, outdoor living, creativity, and connection, this could be home. Whether you’re downsizing, moving closer to family, or ready for a slower pace, Bellingham and Whatcom County offer an ideal balance between energy and ease. Ready to Explore Bellingham for Yourself? As a REALTOR® specializing in senior transitions and relocations, I understand what matters most — comfort, connection, and confidence. My approach is personal and patient, guiding you through every decision with care. Let’s talk about your Bellingham dreams. Andi 📞 Call: 360.734.6479 🌐 Schedule: AndiDyer.com/schedule We Are the Keys to Your New Home. Andi Dyer, REALTOR® REMAX Whatcom County Expert Guidance to Buy, Invest, and Sell in Bellingham and Whatcom County
By Andi Dyer January 1, 2026
This question is one of the most practical questions a homeowner can ask, and also one of the hardest to answer with a quick online estimate. Zestimate-style numbers can tell you what a home might sell for, but they do not tell you what lands in your account after the dust settles. The short answer is this: what you walk away with depends on your mortgage payoff, your selling costs, and the specific terms you negotiate, not just the headline sale price. The deeper truth is that net proceeds are often influenced as much by planning and strategy as they are by market conditions. If you’re thinking about selling in Bellingham or anywhere in Whatcom County, here’s how to understand the real math in a way that actually helps you plan. Sale Price Is Only the Starting Line Most sellers begin with the question “What can I sell for?” because that’s the number people talk about. But the sale price is only the first step in the chain. Your net proceeds typically come from: the sale price you agree to minus the mortgage or lien payoff(s) minus transaction costs and fees minus any credits or concessions that reduce what you receive plus or minus proration items handled at closing The reason this is important is that two sellers can sell for a similar price and still walk away with very different results , depending on what they owed, what they agreed to, and how the negotiation unfolded. The Costs Sellers Commonly Forget to Plan For Most homeowners know there will be costs. The surprise is usually how many categories exist, and how those categories stack together. In Washington State, common seller costs can include agent compensation, the Washington State real estate excise tax, escrow and title fees, and any negotiated credits or concessions. Some of these are relatively predictable. Others depend heavily on strategy. A home that attracts clean offers early tends to preserve leverage. A home that sits longer often ends up accepting more concessions, not because the seller “did something wrong,” but because buyer psychology changes once a listing feels stale. That difference can show up in net proceeds even if the final sale price does not look dramatically different. Why Pricing Strategy Is Really a Net Proceeds Strategy A lot of sellers think pricing is purely about maximizing the sale price. In reality, pricing is about maximizing the outcome . That includes timeline, terms, and net proceeds. When a home is priced accurately for the current market, it typically generates better early traction. That early traction gives you options. Options give you leverage. Leverage often means fewer concessions. When a home is priced above where the market is actually responding, it may still sell eventually, but it often does so after price reductions, longer market time, and more negotiation. Net proceeds can be quietly reduced in that process. This is why “What will I walk away with?” is not a math problem you do at the end. It’s a planning question you answer at the beginning. Taxes: Sometimes Relevant, Sometimes Not, Always Worth Understanding Early Some sellers worry about capital gains tax, and that worry can either be unnecessary or very justified depending on the specifics. Many primary residence sellers qualify for federal exclusions if they meet ownership and use requirements, but the details matter, and rentals or second homes are a different conversation. Washington does not currently impose a state capital gains tax on the sale of primary residences, but federal rules still apply. Planning options, when they exist, tend to be more available before you list, not after you accept an offer. The goal here is not to turn you into a tax expert. It’s to make sure taxes are either taken off your worry list, or addressed early enough that they don’t surprise you later. When This Answer Changes There are a few scenarios where “walk away with” looks meaningfully different: If you’ve owned the home a long time, you may have significant equity but also more questions about timing, taxes, and the next step. If the home has been a rental at any point, tax treatment can change. If you’re coordinating a purchase, your net proceeds are also tied to your next housing plan and how you want to structure the transition. None of these scenarios are problems. They simply mean you want clarity sooner. A Better Way to Use This Question Here’s the best use of this question: as a planning tool. If you know your approximate net range, you can make decisions with more confidence. You can decide if downsizing works, if staying put makes more sense, or if you want to wait and revisit in six months. You can plan repairs realistically instead of guessing. You can approach selling as a strategy, not a leap. If you’re not ready to list, that’s fine. This question is still worth answering. In fact, that’s often when it helps most. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you’re trying to make a plan and want a clearer estimate of your potential net proceeds, this is a good place to start: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi.dyer
By Andi Dyer January 1, 2026
A Year of Re-Engagement, Not a Boom Housing forecasts tend to carry emotional weight, especially for longtime homeowners who have lived through whiplash conditions over the past several years. After the urgency of 2020–2021 and the sudden stall that followed, many sellers are understandably cautious about trusting another set of predictions. Beneath the headlines sits a quieter concern: Is this finally the moment the market breaks loose again, or is another disruption waiting just ahead? What makes 2026 different is not optimism, but alignment. For the first time in several years, most major forecasts are describing the same general shape of the market—not overheated, not collapsing, but functioning. That kind of consensus matters because it points to normalization rather than a temporary swing in sentiment. Across nearly every major outlook—from the National Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Redfin, and regional economists such as Windermere’s chief economist Jeff Tucker—the expectations are strikingly consistent. More listings are expected to come to market. Mortgage rates are projected to ease modestly. Sales activity should rise slightly. Prices are forecast to remain flat or gently higher. This is why 2026 is not best understood as a comeback year. It is a reset year, one where movement returns not because of excitement, but because the system starts working again. National Outlook: The Market Starts Working Again Nationally, existing-home sales are expected to rise modestly in 2026, generally in the low single digits. Even with that improvement, sales volumes will remain well below pre-pandemic norms. This is not a demand problem so much as a turnover problem. Roughly four out of five homeowners with mortgages still hold rates below 6%, which continues to discourage discretionary moves. As a result, transactions in 2026 are expected to be driven primarily by life events—retirement, family changes, job transitions, downsizing—rather than speculation or fear of missing out. Markets shaped by necessity behave very differently from markets driven by urgency, and this distinction is central to understanding the year ahead. Mortgage Rates: Why 6% to 6.3% Is Meaningful Relief Most forecasts place average 30-year mortgage rates in the 6% to 6.3% range in 2026. For homeowners who remember rates starting with a three, that may not sound transformative. But context matters. In 2024 and 2025, rates hovered closer to 6.6% to 7%, with extended periods above 7%. That rapid rise—nearly doubling from early 2022—was the fastest increase in more than 50 years, and it didn’t just slow buyers down. It broke affordability math entirely for many households. A move from the high sixes into the low sixes does not make housing cheap. What it does do is reopen doors that were fully closed. In practical terms, it materially changes monthly payments and purchasing power without requiring prices to fall. In Whatcom County, where a typical home price sits in the mid-$600,000 range, the difference is tangible. At roughly 6.9%, a standard principal-and-interest payment lands around $4,100 per month. At closer to 6.1%, that payment falls nearer to $3,700. That $400 difference does not erase affordability challenges, but it often makes the difference between qualifying and not qualifying, or between stretching uncomfortably and feeling stable. As Andi Dyer notes, “Lower rates won’t bring back the frenzy—but they do make the math workable again, and that’s what allows movement to return.” Over the past 30 years, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered around 6.5% to 7%. Seen through that lens, projected 2026 rates are not historically high. The sub-4% years were the anomaly, driven by emergency policy rather than long-term norms. Home Prices: Nominal Stability, Real Improvement Price forecasts for 2026 are among the calmest in recent memory. Nationally, expectations cluster around 1% to 3% appreciation. Locally, forecasts for the broader Puget Sound region lean even flatter. The more important story is real affordability rather than nominal pricing. Inflation and income growth are expected to outpace home price gains, meaning the share of income required for housing is projected to ease. Nationally, that ratio is expected to dip below 30% for the first time since 2022. This shift does not generate dramatic headlines, but it changes behavior. When affordability improves gradually, buyers become more deliberate and sellers must be more precise. Volatility gives way to negotiation, and decision-making becomes less reactive. Inventory: The Quiet Catalyst of 2026 Inventory growth remains one of the most consequential—and least flashy—drivers of change. Across much of Washington, active listings have been rebuilding toward pre-pandemic norms. Homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers have more choices. Sellers face real competition. This is not a distressed market. It is a market where pricing accuracy, preparation, and strategy matter more than timing. Homes aligned with market reality continue to sell. Homes that are not tend to linger until expectations adjust. How Life-Event Selling Shapes the Local Market One reason national forecasts translate more cleanly to Whatcom County than many regions is the nature of local sellers themselves. Most homeowners here are not reacting to financial pressure. They are making planned transitions tied to retirement timing, family needs, lifestyle changes, or long-held intentions to relocate. Life-event sellers behave differently. They tend to prioritize certainty and outcome quality over chasing peak pricing. As a result, price corrections tend to be shallower, inventory builds more gradually, and negotiation replaces volatility rather than panic. As Andi Dyer explains, “This isn’t a market driven by urgency or fear. Most sellers here are moving because their lives are changing, not because the market is forcing them.” That underlying stability is a key reason the 2026 outlook points toward re-engagement rather than disruption. Local Risk Factors: Flood-Affected Sellers Re-Entering the Market While the broader Whatcom County market remains structurally stable, 2026 will likely see a number of homeowners impacted by past flooding in Sumas and Everson choosing to put their homes on the market. For many of these households, the decision is less about current pricing conditions and more about long-term certainty. Flood exposure has introduced ongoing questions around insurance availability, future premiums, and disclosure complexity. Even when properties have been repaired or mitigated, uncertainty around insurability and future risk can weigh heavily on planning decisions. As a result, some homeowners are opting to act sooner, while conditions remain orderly, rather than waiting for insurance rules or buyer sentiment to shift further. This does not represent distress, nor does it signal broader market weakness. Instead, it reflects a practical reassessment of risk by a specific group of sellers—one that may modestly increase inventory in those areas without materially affecting the countywide outlook. Common Misconceptions to Watch For One of the most persistent misunderstandings heading into 2026 is the belief that a “better” market automatically rewards every seller. Normal markets are selective markets. They reward realism rather than hope. Another common misread is assuming that slightly lower rates will recreate the dynamics of 2021. They will not. The conditions that produced that period no longer exist, and that is precisely why the current environment is more stable. Flat pricing is also often misinterpreted as failure. In reality, periods of nominal stability often provide the healthiest conditions for thoughtful decision-making, especially for homeowners with equity and long-term plans. Closing Perspective: A Market That Rewards Clarity For Whatcom County homeowners, 2026 is less about predicting the perfect moment and more about understanding the conditions under which good decisions are made. After years of distortion—first by urgency, then by hesitation—the market is settling into something steadier and more transparent. That does not remove complexity, but it does reduce noise. In a market like this, sellers who plan deliberately, understand their risk, and price with realism are no longer competing against extremes. They are simply meeting a market that has started working again. Sources & Methodology This forecast draws from a synthesis of national and regional housing outlooks, including projections from the National Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Redfin, and regional economic commentary from Windermere’s chief economist, Jeff Tucker. Rather than relying on outlier predictions, this analysis emphasizes areas of agreement across forecasts. National data is interpreted through a local lens, accounting for Whatcom County’s seller demographics, equity profiles, inventory composition, and historically low levels of distressed sales. Localized risks—such as flood exposure in specific submarkets—are considered for their impact on planning and timing rather than assumed price effects. Press Pull Summary (For Media Use) Headline: Whatcom County’s 2026 Housing Market Signals a Return to Normal Functioning Pull Quote: “Lower rates won’t bring back the frenzy—but they do make the math workable again, and that’s what allows movement to return.” — Andi Dyer, Bellingham real estate broker Summary: According to Bellingham-based real estate broker Andi Dyer, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of re-engagement rather than a boom for the Whatcom County housing market. With inventory gradually rebuilding, mortgage rates easing into the low-6% range, and prices remaining stable, Dyer describes a market that is beginning to function normally after years of disruption. Most local sellers, she notes, are making planned, life-event-driven moves rather than reacting to pressure, creating steadier conditions and more deliberate decision-making across the market. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you’re weighing whether to wait or start planning now, this is a good place to begin: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Real t or.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi.dyer
By Andi Dyer December 31, 2025
Selling costs can feel confusing because most people only sell a few times in their life, and costs are not discussed in a consistent, clear way. This often leads homeowners to focus on the offer price and ignore the expenses that shape what they actually keep. The short answer is: selling costs in Washington State include agent compensation, the Washington State excise tax, escrow and title fees, and any negotiated credits or concessions, plus practical moving and transition costs. Some are predictable. Others depend on how the sale unfolds. Why This Matters More in a Balanced Market In a fast market, sellers can sometimes ignore costs because offers feel abundant and forgiving. In a balanced market, the details matter more. Terms, concessions, and the psychology of pricing can influence what you keep. That is why cost planning is not just a closing-day detail. It is part of your listing strategy. The Washington State Excise Tax Deserves Special Attention Many sellers are surprised by the real estate excise tax because it is tied to the sale price and calculated at closing. It is not a small rounding error. It can meaningfully impact net proceeds, especially in higher price ranges. Understanding it early allows you to plan with more realism. It is much easier to make good decisions when you are not surprised later. How Negotiations Affect Costs Selling costs are not only fees. They include the outcome of negotiation. Repair credits, buyer concessions, and terms that shift financial responsibility can change net proceeds even if the sale price looks similar. This is another reason why preparation and pricing accuracy matter. Strong early demand often creates leverage, and leverage often reduces concessions. When Costs Look Different Costs can vary if you are selling a condo, selling an investment property, dealing with multiple liens, or coordinating a purchase. This is also where longtime homeowners often benefit from planning and advice well before listing, especially when the sale intersects with retirement or the desire to simplify. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you’re trying to plan realistically around costs and net proceeds, this is a helpful starting point: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi,dyer For longtime homeowners: Selling a longtime home often intersects with taxes, retirement timing, and lifestyle planning. Getting clarity early tends to preserve options later.
By Andi Dyer December 30, 2025
Many homeowners assume that waiting is the conservative choice. If you don’t sell this year, you can always reassess next year. On the surface, that feels cautious and responsible. But for many sellers, “waiting one more year” isn’t a neutral decision. It’s an active choice with trade-offs that are easy to overlook. Why waiting feels comforting Waiting postpones disruption. You don’t have to declutter yet. You don’t have to make decisions about where you’ll go next. You don’t have to engage with the market or expose your home to feedback. In that sense, waiting protects emotional energy. But comfort isn’t the same as clarity. What waiting quietly changes Markets don’t stand still. Neither do personal circumstances. Over time, maintenance costs increase, systems age, and life plans shift. A home that feels manageable this year may feel heavier next year. A move that feels optional now may feel urgent later. Waiting can also compress decision-making. When external factors eventually force action, sellers often have fewer choices and less flexibility. Why this isn’t about predicting the market This isn’t an argument for timing the market. It’s about timing your life. Selling earlier can create options: downsizing on your terms, relocating without urgency, or simplifying before things feel rushed. Waiting can be the right choice too, but it’s best made intentionally rather than by default. Questions that help clarify the decision Instead of asking whether the market will be better next year, it’s often more useful to ask: What would staying another year give me? What would it cost me, financially or emotionally? Would selling sooner make my next chapter easier or harder? These questions tend to surface the real priorities. A planning-forward reframe Waiting isn’t wrong. But waiting without examining the trade-offs can quietly limit options. A steadier approach is to explore scenarios now, even if you decide not to act yet. Information doesn’t force decisions. It usually does the opposite. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you’re weighing whether to wait or start planning now, this is a good place to begin: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Re a ltor.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi.dyer
By Andi Dyer December 29, 2025
Many homeowners ask this because they are tired, busy, overwhelmed, or simply realistic. Not everyone has the time or desire to do repairs and upgrades before selling. The good news is that homes are sold as is in Bellingham and Whatcom County regularly. The short answer is: yes, you can sell as is, but your price and your strategy must match the reality of the home. An as-is sale can be smooth and successful when it is positioned clearly. It becomes stressful when expectations are misaligned. What “As Is” Really Means in Practice “As is” means the seller is not committing to making repairs. It does not mean inspections go away. Buyers will still inspect. They will still evaluate risk. They will still decide whether the home fits their comfort level. In practice, as-is works best when it is paired with honesty and strong preparation in other areas: clear disclosures, clean presentation, and pricing that reflects condition. Why Buyers React Strongly to Uncertainty Buyers can handle a fixer. What they struggle with is uncertainty. If a home looks like it might have hidden issues, buyers often assume worst-case scenarios. That does not mean you need to repair everything. It means you should think carefully about what the home communicates. A home that is clean, accessible, and straightforward about condition can feel safer than a home that looks half-finished or poorly maintained. When As-Is Is a Smart Strategy As-is can be ideal when the seller wants simplicity, when repairs would be costly or time-consuming, or when the home’s best buyer is someone who wants to renovate anyway. In those cases, the key is to align the listing strategy with the likely buyer pool. That often includes thoughtful pricing, clear marketing, and a plan for handling inspection conversations without surprise or defensiveness. When As-Is Can Backfire As-is tends to backfire when sellers expect top-of-market pricing while also expecting buyers to absorb visible projects. In a balanced market, buyers have choices. If the home feels like extra work and the price does not reflect that, they often move on. The goal is not to “get away with” selling as is. The goal is to sell as is with clarity and confidence. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you’re considering an as-is sale and want to understand the tradeoffs before you commit to anything, this is a good first step: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi.dyer.com
By Andi Dyer December 27, 2025
Many sellers don’t delay selling because they’re unsure about the market. They delay because there’s always one more thing that could be improved. One more project. One more update. One more box to check before the home feels “ready.” This instinct is understandable, but it can quietly keep sellers stuck longer than they intend. Why improvement feels productive Making improvements feels active. It gives a sense of control and progress. Instead of facing the uncertainty of the market, sellers can focus on tangible tasks with clear outcomes. In that sense, improvement can feel safer than exposure. How “almost ready” becomes a moving target The challenge is that “ready” is rarely a fixed point. Once one project is finished, another becomes visible. Homes evolve slowly, and perfection remains just out of reach. Over time, sellers may realize they’ve been preparing for years without moving closer to a decision. When improvements stop adding clarity Some improvements meaningfully reduce buyer hesitation. Others simply make the home nicer to live in while extending the timeline. The difference often lies in whether the improvement changes how buyers perceive value or merely improves comfort for the seller. Why waiting can narrow options Delaying for incremental improvements can compress future choices. Life circumstances change. Maintenance continues. What once felt optional can become urgent. Selling earlier doesn’t mean selling unfinished. It means deciding which “enough” actually serves your goals. A planning-forward reframe Instead of asking, “What else should I fix?” try asking: “What would need to be done for me to feel comfortable listing?” That question often reveals whether improvement is serving clarity or postponing it. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you’re wondering whether one more project is helping or holding you back, start here: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Rea l tor.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi.dyer
By Andi Dyer December 26, 2025
Selling a home you’ve owned for a long time is very different from selling a recent purchase. The decisions are heavier, the stakes feel higher, and the ripple effects extend far beyond the transaction itself. That’s especially true right now, as Bellingham’s market continues to shift away from the frantic pace of previous years and into something more balanced and selective. For longtime homeowners, the question is rarely “Can I sell?” It’s “How do I sell well without creating unnecessary stress, risk, or regret?” Why the current market requires more judgment, not more hype In hot markets, speed covers a lot of mistakes. Homes sell quickly, buyers compete aggressively, and imperfect decisions are often forgiven by momentum. That environment rewards agents who focus on volume and visibility. In today’s market, momentum is earned rather than assumed. Buyers are more cautious, more analytical, and less willing to overlook uncertainty. This shift places much greater importance on strategy, preparation, and decision-making — especially for sellers who have significant equity and long-term financial considerations. What homeowners need now is not pressure to act fast, but guidance that helps them act wisely. The importance of protecting equity, not just achieving a sale For longtime homeowners, equity often represents decades of commitment and patience. It may be tied to retirement plans, downsizing decisions, or long-term financial security. Protecting that equity requires more than choosing a list price and hoping for the best. It requires an agent who understands how pricing, preparation, negotiation, and risk management interact. Small missteps — poorly handled inspections, reactive concessions, or misaligned pricing — can quietly erode net outcomes even when a sale technically “succeeds.” Strong representation focuses on preserving value throughout the process, not just at the offer stage. Why communication and pacing matter more than ever Longtime homeowners often need more space to think through decisions. There may be emotional attachment, logistical complexity, or uncertainty about what comes next. An agent who rushes these conversations can create anxiety and resistance rather than clarity. What helps instead is steady, transparent communication. Clear explanations of tradeoffs. Time to absorb information. Guidance that respects the fact that this isn’t just a transaction, but a transition. When sellers feel supported rather than pushed, decisions tend to be stronger and outcomes more satisfying. The value of local, situation-specific experience Bellingham is not a single market. Neighborhoods behave differently. Buyer expectations vary by price range and home type. What works for one property may not work for another, even a few blocks away. Longtime homeowners benefit from agents who understand these nuances and can adapt strategy accordingly. Local knowledge isn’t just about knowing sales data. It’s about understanding how buyers interpret value right now, and how that interpretation should shape decisions. A planning-forward reframe Instead of asking, “Who can sell my house the fastest?” a more useful question right now is: “Who will help me navigate this sale with the least amount of risk and the most confidence?” For longtime homeowners, that distinction makes all the difference. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you’re a longtime homeowner weighing your next move and want thoughtful, low-pressure guidance, start here: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Rea l tor.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi.dyer
By Andi Dyer December 26, 2025
Inspection negotiations are one of the most emotionally charged parts of a home sale. Sellers often feel blindsided by requests and worry that the deal is slipping away. The key to navigating inspections successfully is understanding that inspection negotiations are not a judgment of your home, but a normal part of the transaction process . Why inspections feel personal For many sellers, an inspection report feels like a critique of how they’ve cared for their home. In reality, inspection reports are designed to identify issues, not assign blame. Nearly every inspection uncovers something. That doesn’t mean the sale is in trouble. How buyers typically approach inspections Buyers use inspections to understand risk. Some focus on safety issues. Others focus on major systems. Very few expect perfection. Requests often reflect buyer comfort levels rather than absolute necessity. What sellers can reasonably expect Not every request requires action. Some items are informational. Others may be reasonable to address or negotiate through credits. Understanding which requests are typical and which are outliers helps sellers respond calmly instead of defensively. Why preparation matters here too Sellers who have a clear understanding of their home’s condition before listing tend to feel more confident during inspections. They are less surprised and better able to decide what they are willing to do. A calmer way to approach inspection negotiations Instead of reacting to the list, it helps to ask: “Which items truly affect safety, function, or buyer confidence?” That perspective leads to better decisions and keeps negotiations focused. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you want to understand inspection negotiations before you’re in the middle of one, start here: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi.dyer
By Andi Dyer December 26, 2025
When a home goes under contract, many sellers assume the deal is done. But experienced sellers know that transactions don’t close until they close. This is where backup offers can play an important role. A backup offer is an additional offer that takes effect if the primary contract falls apart. Understanding how they work can give sellers more security and leverage. Why deals sometimes fall through Even strong contracts can fail. Financing issues, inspection disagreements, appraisal problems, or buyer hesitation can all derail a transaction. This isn’t always a reflection of the home or the seller. It’s part of real estate reality. Backup offers exist because of this uncertainty. How backup offers protect sellers Having a backup offer keeps momentum on your side. It signals to the primary buyer that there is continued interest, which can reduce the chance of aggressive renegotiation. If the first deal does fall apart, a backup offer can allow the transaction to continue without going back to market, saving time and stress. When backup offers are most useful Backup offers are especially helpful in balanced markets where buyers are cautious. They provide insurance without forcing a decision. They can also be useful when sellers are coordinating a purchase or want to avoid re-listing and restarting the showing process. What sellers should consider before accepting a backup  It’s important to understand the terms of the backup offer, including timing and contingencies. Not all backups are equal. Some are stronger than others. A thoughtful review helps ensure the backup truly adds security rather than complexity. A planning-forward perspective Backup offers aren’t about mistrust. They’re about realism. Having a plan B often makes plan A stronger. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care. 📍 Serving Bellingham and all of Whatcom County 📞 Call or text: 360 • 734 • 6479 📧 Email: andi [at] andidyer [dot] com If you want to understand how backup offers fit into your overall strategy, start here: 👉 Start with a low-pressure home value and seller planning tool here: https://www.andidyerrealestate.com/seller/valuation/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/profile/AndiDyer Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/realestateagents/andi-dyer Homes.com: https://www.homes.com/real-estate-agents/andi-dyer Google Business Profile: https://g.page/andi-dyer-real-estate Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AndiDyerRealEstate Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/andi.dyer
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